Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings for Week 12 (2024) (2024)

Pull up a chair as we swing back into our rest-of-season series for a weekly look at my top 101 SP Baller Ranks breakdown. This time of year can bring a midseason lull for some, but the weather and action are heating up if you're paying attention. Join me for the Week 12 edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!

Not only have we been treated to all sorts of fine performances of late, but we've had several top prospect pitchers get the call. Let's see what we've got moving forward with tiered ranks, complemented by a rest-of-season auction value ($), their Previous Week's Value (PV), the trend between the two, and a (+/-) column denoting the rank shift compared to last week.

These ranks are geared toward traditional 5x5 roto leagues, and I typically exclude most injured SPs, lest a return is imminent. This week we've got a handful of intriguing pitchers to discuss, plus five young arms who may or may not greatly impact the rest of 2024. Please note most stats here are gathered before Tuesday's games. Let's jump into my top 101 SPs!

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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis

-Tyler Glasnow is cursed with minimal run support and a 4.66 ERA/2.50 SIERA gap in the last 30 days. Some might balk at his standing here but my faith is largely rooted in K-BB% (control) while minding the contact quality (command). Five earned is never good, but facing the Yankees in the Bronx is the toughest assignment and he still struck out 12 with a 40% CSW rate.

Now, he made an obvious mistake on that HR to Trent Grisham, but Alex Verdugo reached ahead of that on a grounder with a .180 xBA. Before this, the 30-year-old had gone eight straight starts without allowing multiple barrels. The 36.1% strikeout rate over the last 30 days leads all starters. The lack of offense has yielded zero wins since May 4 and the gap between the ERA and SIERA is painful.

The talent remains, but he’s ranked 421st over the last 30 days on Yahoo 5x5 scoring. If you are freaking out a bit, then I’d say calm down. If you can slide even the slightest buy low through in your league then I’d applaud you. Sometimes it feels silly to talk about the top, top talents here. Most of you, dear readers, know better. But if it helps a handful then great.

Tonight marked the first time in more than a month (since May 4; first time in six starts) the Dodgers have given Tyler Glasnow any run support while he was still on the mound.

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) June 10, 2024

-Braxton Garrett is another arm sporting a harsh gap between results (5.81 ERA) and sabermetrics (3.34 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.24 SIERA). There’s no ignoring that Miami grades out poorly as a fielding team, posting -11 Defensive Runs Saved per The Fielding Bible and -19 per FanGraphs. Garrett does a good job keeping the ball down (56% ground-ball rate) but ate a .600 BABIP in his five-run day against the Rays on June 5. Hopefully, he has a better game tonight.

-Ryan Pepiot was a double-edged sword on Monday against Baltimore. Someone on Reddit asked if they were absurd to start him there and the feedback was good form. It’s a viable risk to take, but being a fly-ball pitcher can lead to trouble against BAL bats. (He posted his best ground-ball rate of the season at 52%.)

Gunnar Henderson's homering was not surprising (James McCann was). But Pepiot isn’t facing BAL each time out and still struck out nine with zero walks. This follows an 8:0 K:BB performance against Miami on June 4 and a 7:1 game on May 29. He faces a reeling Braves team in Atlanta next before likely dates with Pittsburgh and Seattle, both of whom possess two of the highest three strikeout rates over the last 30 days. Keep that fastball humming!

Ryan Pepiot's 4-Seam Fastball leads all starters with a 36.3 Whiff% pic.twitter.com/h3SP7vex48

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) June 11, 2024

-Hunter Brown continues to build momentum after a rough beginning to 2024. Would you be shocked that he has the third-lowest hard-hit rate (27.1%) per Statcast over the last 30 days? You shouldn’t be, because four straight quality starts and a ground-ball rate of over 60% in the last month are beautiful. So why isn’t he ranked even higher?

The 2.91 ERA in that span still has a 4.35 FIP behind it. I want to side more with the 3.09 xFIP but most of the six home runs surrendered in that span have not been cheapies. Only 19 hard-hit balls of late, but six of them have been barrels. He’s still ironing out the arsenal, with his four-seam usage going from 45% in April to 38.5% in May and an early 31% in June. More confidence in his secondaries and utilizing a cutter/sinker instead of straight heat is paying off.

-Simeon Woods Richardson has a 2.84 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 10 starts this season, but a modest 20% K rate and an arsenal that doesn’t overwhelm has dampened enthusiasm. Well, his latest outing on June 8 saw his fastball top out at 97.2 mph.

For reference, his June 8 start in 2023 had the heater peak at 93.8 mph (h/t TFTwins on X). The Twins retooled his load and delivery to unlock more power and he showed out with 17 whiffs on 97 pitches in this latest go. And he draws a home start against Oakland next.

simeon woods richardson has now reached 97.2 mph as his max velo

he & the #mntwins have done a fantastic job improving some of his actions

1. arm slot

2. shoulder direction

3. more extension through back hip ride 🚫 pushing from toes

4. delaying upper half rotation pic.twitter.com/F0ssfiesUI

— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) June 9, 2024

Key rookies who have recently made their debut:

-Drew Thorpe would allow two runs (one earned) on three hits and a pair of walks with four strikeouts over five innings of work. The rookie threw 61-of-98 pitches for strikes in his MLB debut, earning seven whiffs, eight fouls, and four balls in play off his nasty changeup.

Drew Thorpe strikes out Julio Rodriguez on a beautiful changeup for his first career K. pic.twitter.com/V6t336Bjom

— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) June 12, 2024

Unfortunately, the rest of his arsenal wasn’t so hot. All four of his other pitches had an average exit velocity north of 90 mph, with his cutter getting blistered over 102 mph twice. His next assignment would be a tough one at home against Houston.

-Hurston Waldrep was rolling early, facing the minimum through three innings on just 28 pitches until Washington got a second look at him. With two on and two out, Waldrep didn’t get a four-seamer inside enough to Keibert Ruiz, who sent it over the right-field wall. The wheels came off as fatigue appeared to set in.

We must point out that Joey Gallo hit a 58-mph squibber off a plus splitter away from the usual shift, which should’ve been the third out. And Luis Garcia Jr. got his hit on a flare that left the ball at 69.8 mph.

He’d walk Jacob Young after that to end the day with 34 pitches in one frame. Waldrep’s bullpen couldn’t pick him up, either, as Aaron Bummer let all three inherited runners score on a CJ Abrams double. I believe in Waldrep, who would face the Rays at home next.

-Cade Povich had a stout 75 strikeouts and 3.18 ERA/1.11 WHIP in 56 ⅔ IP at Triple-A but got punished by a disciplined Blue Jays team. Povich walked four and only struck out two, allowing an opposite-field homer to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that was gone in only half of MLB parks.

It could’ve been a solo shot if he didn’t walk Ernie Clement and Danny Jansen before the at-bat. He would only throw 58-of-100 pitches for strikes, with a ~50% zone rate on the fastball.

Unfortunately, Statcast showed a 100% zone-contact rate on it. His changeup is his best pitch but the fastball has to be good enough to set the table. He only got one whiff on five swings when throwing the change (15 total). He faces Atlanta next.

-Carlos Rodriguez needed 71 pitches to get through 3 ⅔ IP against Toronto, inducing just six whiffs with a 24% CSW rate. The good news is he threw six pitches and his four-seamer got three whiffs on eight swings with no exit velocities above 82 mph.

His slider fared well enough, though he only threw 7-of-15 for strikes (only one was put into play). The sinker got crushed, however. Four were put into play between 94-109 mph. And it all could’ve been worse, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. alone went 0-for-2 against Rodriguez with a .460 xBA and 94-mph grounder in the first before a 108-mph lineout (.680 xBA) in the third.

There are encouraging signs and Toronto is no pushover, but he has some adjustments to make. He’d line up for a start against the Angels if given another turn.

And Shane Baz looks ready to return to Tampa after an astounding 10-strikeout performance at Triple-A. The Rays have a full five-man rotation right now but any injury should lead to Baz. I wish they’d move Aaron Civale into the bullpen and see if they can optimize the 28-year-old.

Civale has allowed a homer in 11-of-13 starts thus far. He holds a 1.01 WHIP and .632 OPS against the first time through the order, but a 1.56 WHIP and .886 OPS the second time. God forbid there’s a third time (17 ER and ugly 7:7 K:BB in 12 ⅓ IP).

Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 12

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